Starbucks shares tumble as China, US demand slowdown clouds outlook

Starbucks franchise

Shares of Starbucks fell nearly 14% before the bell on Wednesday, after the coffee chain cut its annual forecasts on persistent weak demand in the United States from inflation-weary customers and a slower-than-expected recovery in China.

Several quarters of price hikes have forced customers to ditch cafes and restaurants and instead drink coffee at home, hurting business for chains such as Starbucks. Severe cold weather in the U.S. also discouraged sales at the company’s stores, while its business in the Middle East took a hit due to the Israel-Hamas war.

“The inability to stop the traffic leakage from the early signs of pull-back in November to date and the worsening macro and competitive dynamics in China may suggest prolonged challenges and no evidence of light at the end of the tunnel,” Danilo Gargiulo, senior analyst at Bernstein, wrote in a note.

The company expects its full-year comparable sales — both globally and in the U.S. — to be in the range of a low single-digit decline to flat, compared with its previous range of 4% to 6% growth.

It also cut its per-share profit growth forecast to between flat and low-single digits, versus its earlier range of 15% to 20% growth.

“Many customers are being more exacting about where and how they choose to spend their money, particularly with stimulus savings mostly spent,” CEO Laxman Narasimhan said on a post-earnings call.

Starbucks’ global comparable sales fell 4% for the second quarter, compared with a 1.44% rise estimated by analysts, according to LSEG data.

Starbucks’ forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E), a common benchmark for valuing stocks, is 20.88, compared to 21.54 and 20.83 for industry peers McDonald’s and Restaurant Brands, respectively.

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